The Cosmic Core-collapse Supernova Rate does not match the Massive-Star Formation Rate
Shunsaku Horiuchi, John F. Beacom, Christopher S. Kochanek, Jose L. Prieto, K. Z. Stanek, Todd A. Thompson
Comments: 16 pages, 5 figures
Subjects: Cosmology and Extragalactic Astrophysics (astro-ph.CO); Solar and Stellar Astrophysics (astro-ph.SR)
We identify a "supernova rate problem": the measured cosmic core-collapse supernova rate is a factor ~ 2 smaller (with significance ~ 2 sigma) than that predicted from the measured cosmic massive-star formation rate. This comparison is critical for topics from galaxy evolution and enrichment to the abundance of neutron stars and black holes. We systematically explore possible resolutions. The precision and accuracy of the star formation rate data and conversion to the supernova rate are well supported, and proposed changes would have far-reaching consequences. The likely explanation is that many supernovae are missed because they are either optically faint or dark, whether intrinsically or due to obscuration. We investigate supernovae too faint to have been discovered in cosmic surveys by a detailed study of all supernova discoveries in the local volume. If possible supernova impostors are included, then faint supernovae are common enough by fraction to solve the supernova rate problem. If they are not included, then the rate of dark core collapses is likely substantial. The remaining alternative is that there is a surprising change required in the understanding of star formation or supernova rates. These possibilities can be distinguished by upcoming supernova surveys, searches for disappearing massive stars, and measurements of supernova neutrinos.
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